I agree with much of what you said, but I don't believe NY will begin to decline next week. As a former NYC hospital physician who still has a lot of friends working there, the shortage of PPE for this specific hospital network has been overstated. There are plenty of PPEs for the healthcare workers(can only speak about one large NY network), but there are not enough beds or space in the ERs for all the people coming in.Well... If we did that with the flu then the numbers would also plummet. You can play that card game all day. Guess what the flu death rate is now?
Well lets say that we estimate the flu rate at 59 million for 2017-18. And we know that about 61,000 people died. So that is 1/10th of 1 percent death rate or .0001%.
Now if we take hospitalizations to death it is about 7%. It was a bad flu season.
According to all the people that are experts on this, we are looking at a confirmed cases to death rate of about 4 to 5% worldwide until 2021. We are looking at less then 1% for the united states.
We are going to get off easy with this one. We are not spiking at one time, we can move equipment and people. New York is bad because they did not lock down sooner, they should have gone into full lock down in feb. But they are peaking right now. They will start to decline next week if they can keep in lockdown.
The west coast seems to be mostly immune to this virus. We luckily have had a warm spring and humid. Warm and humid makes this virus less likely to survive on items. We also started to lock down before the state governor ordered it. We are seeing the same effects in Florida and Texas.
We are on track to be through this by May. We could start up most factories by mid April.
I really hope you're right and the numbers start to decline, but as absurd as this sounds... there are a lot of people just not taking this serious.