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Have you, or anyone you know, become sick with the Coronavirus?

np86

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Well... If we did that with the flu then the numbers would also plummet. You can play that card game all day. Guess what the flu death rate is now?

Well lets say that we estimate the flu rate at 59 million for 2017-18. And we know that about 61,000 people died. So that is 1/10th of 1 percent death rate or .0001%.

Now if we take hospitalizations to death it is about 7%. It was a bad flu season.

According to all the people that are experts on this, we are looking at a confirmed cases to death rate of about 4 to 5% worldwide until 2021. We are looking at less then 1% for the united states.

We are going to get off easy with this one. We are not spiking at one time, we can move equipment and people. New York is bad because they did not lock down sooner, they should have gone into full lock down in feb. But they are peaking right now. They will start to decline next week if they can keep in lockdown.

The west coast seems to be mostly immune to this virus. We luckily have had a warm spring and humid. Warm and humid makes this virus less likely to survive on items. We also started to lock down before the state governor ordered it. We are seeing the same effects in Florida and Texas.

We are on track to be through this by May. We could start up most factories by mid April.
I agree with much of what you said, but I don't believe NY will begin to decline next week. As a former NYC hospital physician who still has a lot of friends working there, the shortage of PPE for this specific hospital network has been overstated. There are plenty of PPEs for the healthcare workers(can only speak about one large NY network), but there are not enough beds or space in the ERs for all the people coming in.
I really hope you're right and the numbers start to decline, but as absurd as this sounds... there are a lot of people just not taking this serious.
 

Gwyn

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I agree with much of what you said, but I don't believe NY will begin to decline next week. As a former NYC hospital physician who still has a lot of friends working there, the shortage of PPE for this specific hospital network has been overstated. There are plenty of PPEs for the healthcare workers(can only speak about one large NY network), but there are not enough beds or space in the ERs for all the people coming in.
I really hope you're right and the numbers start to decline, but as absurd as this sounds... there are a lot of people just not taking this serious.
I would highly recommend that your friends read the FEMA pandemic handbook. I know for a fact those books sit on shelves and are not read. They need to find the alternative facility and then contact FEMA for the next facility. For places like New York the only treatment for this bug is to spread out the patients to other hospitals.

I am optimistic about when NYC will peak. I am worried that they did not do enough soon enough, they should have locked down in Feb. But this virus is not a really nasty one and it seems to need direct contact to spread. So, if I miss my guess, the vast majority of people that are going to get this bug happened last week, when the city was not locked down. Now that they are locked down, the virus will spike through families, which will show symptoms some time in the next 7 days. After that, if they keep the lock down, they will start seeing the number reduce.

I do not expect the worst case scenario, but that depends on a lot of factors that even experts can not judge.

Why? Because this is not really a nasty bug. It is good enough to get everyone to panic, but it is not really that bad.

How do I know? If it was the world killer, it would have done it already. Look at china. They have the highest density of people in the world. They have one of the most malformed medical systems in the world. They have some of the worst air, water, and land pollution that could ever be inflected on a system.

80% of all water in china is unfit to touch human skin. Air pollution even though the Wuhan area is in complete lock down is so high that it is unhealthy to breathe. In the last 7 days, the average AQI was 150 with several days over 200. I could go on and on.

China only had 80,000 cases. It never spread through some of the dense cities. The lock downs worked. They peaked 1 to 2 weeks after the locked down and they declined since. There is zero reason to think that this bug has changed enough since then to worry about.
 
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markjenn

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I'm not saying you're wrong, but you really can't use the China situation (encouraging as it is) as a good template for USA's likely trajectory. There are fundamental differences. Each country is in a different situation and things will evolve differently.

BTW, China doesn't have "the highest density of people in the world". In fact they rank 60th to 85th depending on the source of information. Their density is somewhat higher than the US but they're about the same if you exclude Alaska. (The rest of your "statistics" about China I won't directly refute, but sorry, I don't think "80% of all water in China is unfit to touch human skin".)


China instituted policies for its population that are mostly impossible in the US: draconian police-enforced, nobody-on-the-street lockdowns, extremely widespread, mandatory (and free) testing, force of law quarantining and complete isolation of the sick many in huge facilities built in less than a week, complete isolation of cities like Wuhan with the outside world for extended periods, and suspension of many basic civil liberties. China is a much different society from the US and the citizens' behaviors are quite different.

There are some other factors that may work to our favor. But two- or three-week lightly-enforced "shelter at home" measures that are occurring in the US have little to do with what China did.


- Mark
 
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np86

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I would highly recommend that your friends read the FEMA pandemic handbook. I know for a fact those books sit on shelves and are not read. They need to find the alternative facility and then contact FEMA for the next facility. For places like New York the only treatment for this bug is to spread out the patients to other hospitals.

I am optimistic about when NYC will peak. I am worried that they did not do enough soon enough, they should have locked down in Feb. But this virus is not a really nasty one and it seems to need direct contact to spread. So, if I miss my guess, the vast majority of people that are going to get this bug happened last week, when the city was not locked down. Now that they are locked down, the virus will spike through families, which will show symptoms some time in the next 7 days. After that, if they keep the lock down, they will start seeing the number reduce.

I do not expect the worst case scenario, but that depends on a lot of factors that even experts can not judge.

Why? Because this is not really a nasty bug. It is good enough to get everyone to panic, but it is not really that bad.

How do I know? If it was the world killer, it would have done it already. Look at china. They have the highest density of people in the world. They have one of the most malformed medical systems in the world. They have some of the worst air, water, and land pollution that could ever be inflected on a system.

80% of all water in china is unfit to touch human skin. Air pollution even though the Wuhan area is in complete lock down is so high that it is unhealthy to breathe. In the last 7 days, the average AQI was 150 with several days over 200. I could go on and on.

China only had 80,000 cases. It never spread through some of the dense cities. The lock downs worked. They peaked 1 to 2 weeks after the locked down and they declined since. There is zero reason to think that this bug has changed enough since then to worry about.
I hope you are right, but there are people still not taking the lockdown seriously (primarily <21yo). As someone who lives in NYC, I saw this first hand when restrictions were put into place last week. I'm sure its better since then, but i wouldn't know. I've been lucky enough to escape to upstate NY to my summer home.
As for the FEMA handbook, that's all great in theory. However, in NYC there aren't enough beds available to continue looking for the next facility. Its simple to state, but difficult to practice. My friends are physicians, working in ERs, being shifted from their trained specialties to working the "front lines" just because at one point in their training they learned how to use a ventilator. These are the real facts, these folks (all healthcare workers) are working tirelessly, they definitely do not have the time to read a FEMA handbook, maybe that's for the executives making high level decisions. Given these type of outbreaks, I consider myself lucky that I moved out of practicing and went into pharma.

As for how nasty this bug is, I agree that its not nasty if you're healthy, but if you have any underlying (even previously recurrent, but resolved) issue you are at a higher risk. I'd rather people be overly cautious then downplay how bad this is.
Again, I really hope you're right and the spread quickly subsides, but I personally believe we haven't hit the worst yet just because of our delayed reaction to this. Let's all hope this doesn't mutate quickly like most viruses do as they spread.
 
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