Because I've seen the guaranteed residual values which lenders are using for leases and balloon loans.
When a lender enters into a lease/balloon, they are guaranteeing to take the vehicle back at that price providing you didn't abuse it....
Determining the Residual Value is an actuarial science, similar to life insurance longevity calculations.
Do leasing companies sometimes make mistakes on first-year new vehicles? Yes, however, they are almost always on the conservative side. They hate to lose money!
Interesting to me, is that since the Telluride launched, residual values have improved slightly. This phenomenon is reflected in the decreased manufacturer incentives offered beginning July 9th on leases and balloon loans. For instance, through July 8th, the 3 year balloon incentive from KMF was $2,000. It is now $1,400, or a 30% decrease.
This is important, and relatively unheard of, because normally as a model begins to age, the incentives for leasing tend to increase. I interpret this reality to indicate the market is placing a higher initial and residual value on the Telluride than what the MSRP suggested. Simply put, Kia either intentionally or unintentionally under-priced the Telluride. I lean toward unintentionally because they are pulling back on incentives.