2022 Kia Telluride! What to expect.

[2020Telly]

5 years to kick out 500,000 EVs?? It ain't happening. They're already behind on the Telly. Which i'm sure will throw everything else off to.

500,000 globally isn’t that unreasonable. Maybe that’s why there is still only one engine option on the Telluride? Consider there are a ton of EV startups popping up mostly focusing on larger trucks, SUVs and vans. Lithium battery technology innovates much faster than combustion engines. Just think about the phone you were using a couple years ago to today.

 

[hfTELLY]

500,000 globally isn’t that unreasonable. Maybe that’s why there is still only one engine option on the Telluride? Consider there are a ton of EV startups popping up mostly focusing on larger trucks, SUVs and vans. Lithium battery technology innovates much faster than combustion engines. Just think about the phone you were using a couple years ago to today.

Oh okay, globally. I thought you mean in the USA.

 

[2020Telly]

Oh okay, globally. I thought you mean in the USA.

Canoo is working with Hyundai and Kia. One of the founders just for fun built a hot tub into a driveable convertible Cadillac called the Carpool DeVille. If Kia dropped off a Telluride with no engine and asked them to get creative, I’ll bet they could come up with something rather quick. Of course I’m over simplifying the the R&D and engineering but their concept is one platform with a common Powertrain to fit different body styles.

 

[NDBlackEX]

When do you see things leveling out? With the amount of ppl and waitlists that dealers are claiming--it might take 3 or 4 years. But they def need to get it together. Or ppl will just go to the next new thing that comes out within that time.

It's going to take something else coming out that's newer and better, or at least as good. I'm looking at you, Honda. (They're the next one up for a redesign) If the new Pilot comes out with a revised architecture that rivals the Kia, people could flock to that. I think people getting sick of waiting will start to thin the herd a bit. I know a lot of people on here are resigned to waiting but I wonder how many people hear 3,4,6,8,12 month wait and walk out the door never to be seen again. I say that because they move on, buy something else and are out of the market for 3-5 years. This buzz will definitely be gone by that point.

If people go in looking for a Telluride, don't find one but there are 30 new Sorentos on the lot, maybe they gravitate toward those as well.

If they don't have a plan in the works to increase production capacity, we will likely see this trend continue for a while. How covid effects the supply chain will have an impact on production as well.

My fear for Kia is that they make the decision to ramp up production, it takes a few years to execute the plan, the competition introduces new stuff in that timeframe and all of a sudden, they're old news and now they're cranking out more units than they can sell. They seem to be quite reserved when it comes to making decisions so I'm guessing that scenario is on their radar. They don't seem to be big risk takers.

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[zhelder]

It's going to take something else coming out that's newer and better, or at least as good. I'm looking at you, Honda. (They're the next one up for a redesign) If the new Pilot comes out with a revised architecture that rivals the Kia, people could flock to that. I think people getting sick of waiting will start to thin the herd a bit. I know a lot of people on here are resigned to waiting but I wonder how many people hear 3,4,6,8,12 month wait and walk out the door never to be seen again. I say that because they move on, buy something else and are out of the market for 3-5 years. This buzz will definitely be gone by that point.

If people go in looking for a Telluride, don't find one but there are 30 new Sorentos on the lot, maybe they gravitate toward those as well.

If they don't have a plan in the works to increase production capacity, we will likely see this trend continue for a while. How covid effects the supply chain will have an impact on production as well.

My fear for Kia is that they make the decision to ramp up production, it takes a few years to execute the plan, the competition introduces new stuff in that timeframe and all of a sudden, they're old news and now they're cranking out more units than they can sell. They seem to be quite reserved when it comes to making decisions so I'm guessing that scenario is on their radar. They don't seem to be big risk takers.

I don’t expect huge things from the 2022 Pilot. It was likely mostly complete behind the scenes when the Telluride was introduced, and it’s unlikely that Honda is going to go back to square one with the vehicle. The 2020 Highlander has nothing on the Telluride, and I’m thinking the 2022 Pilot will be just as meh.

I think 2022 will bring more minor changes to the Telluride, with 2023 bringing a mid-cycle refresh that will have bigger changes, such as the full digital dash.

And by the time the 2025/2026/2027 Highlander/Pilot come out, Kia will likely have a full second-gen Telluride out (and Hyundai a second-gen Palisade sans garlic smell) ready to shake up the competition.

 

[smokey_mountain]

Paramount Hyundai in NC just sent me an offer for a Palisade $500 below invoice, no special qualifications from what I read. They have several on the lot. There is no need to wait to get Telluride-like experience from a sister brand.

 

[NDBlackEX]

I don’t expect huge things from the 2022 Pilot. It was likely mostly complete behind the scenes when the Telluride was introduced, and it’s unlikely that Honda is going to go back to square one with the vehicle.

It's a safe bet that Honda is coming out with a redesigned Pilot for 2022 since they are offering a special edition trim for 21 which they've done the final year of vehicle generations for over a decade.

Let's talk about the current gen Pilot here for a second if we're talking about Honda not wanting to go back to square one. They did just that with this gen. It's built completely different from the boxy version that came prior to 2016. I'm not talking styling here, I'm talking architecture. The styling is obvious. Honda has not been afraid to tear something down and rework it if it's not right or competitive. See the 2012-2013 civic. They've also been slowly adding to their SUV lineup with the HRV and Passport (the Element is rumored to come back as well) just as Kia has with the Telluride and Seltos. They're going with the suv trend like everyone else and I'm not surprised to see them redesign their 3 row so quickly considering the segment has been booming the last 3-5 years.

The "opportunity" is certainly there to make a better Pilot and have it be a hit. If they come out totally fresh for 2022, they'll likely have the freshest 3 row for a couple years. The Traverse/Acadia, Ascent and Atlas are mid cycle right now, Explorer, Telluride, Highlander are 1st or 2nd year. The Pathfinder, CX9 and Durango are really the only other aging platforms and their piece of the pie is small and they're slow to refresh. The Jeep Grand Wagoneer could be entering the segment as well but I'd expect more of an off road vibe than the rest of the class.

I'd expect that Honda's going to do their thing styling wise. They probably won't shake things up too much. They don't need to, they've got a good reputation to stand on, Kia is still trying to build a good reputation. The architecture is the big thing and where Kia really nailed the Telluride. Styling is subjective and the tech and value (depending on trim) really are just on par with the competition despite what many will say. *Debate me on that if you'd like, Telluride has a few things that are class exclusive but feature some options only on the top trim that are available on competitors lower trims and competitors offer things you can't get on the Telluride.* The Telluride just offers more space and comfort for its size than anything else out there. It's all in how it's built. I will say that once there are incentives available for Telluride, the value will really kick up a notch, especially on the higher trims.

Now, will Honda kick their next gen Pilot up a notch and will it be ready next year? We will have to see. There certainly is opportunity there and if they do a good enough job, they'll be flying off the lots and they just may steal some business from Kia. It should be an interesting year or two in this segment.

*They definitely need to improve the styling on the Pilot before I would consider one and I'm a Honda guy. I think it looks more like a minivan than the Odyssey.

 

[bbbuzzy]

Regarding other features..............what about auto-dimming side view mirrors? Have them on all three of our family vehicles and I think it's a great thing.

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[TellTastic]

Regarding other features..............what about auto-dimming side view mirrors? Have them on all three of our family vehicles and I think it's a great thing.

I think @NDBlackEX does a great job with some analytical posts. Then to read this, with disregard to what had been written, just made me chuckle.
To me, it’s great to fantasize about crap like ‘auto dimming mirrors’, but I’m finding the conversation about Honda’s fight to stay relevant more entertaining.

ps, @smokey_mountain, TF is that all about? Go enjoy yourself a Pali then!

 

[alexdrums]

I think @NCTelly does a great job with some analytical posts. Then to read this, with disregard to what had been written, just made me chuckle.
To me, it’s great to fantasize about crap like ‘auto dimming mirrors’, but I’m finding the conversation about Honda’s fight to stay relevant more entertaining.

ps, @smokey_mountain, TF is that all about? Go enjoy yourself a Pali then!

That wasn’t NCTelly, it was @NDBlackEX. The post about the auto-dimming mirrors was actually more on topic with the subject of this thread...if I am not mistaken.

 

[Martin Kodiak]

From what I read they only planned to start the first year of Telluride production at 40,000 while building alongside the Sorento, then after the hype started bumped up to 60,000 and later to 100,000 reducing the number of American Sorentos manufactured. I don’t think Kia is purposefully holding back production. There is only so much you can grow the supply chain for parts before you can grow supply to meet demand. And if you grow manufacturing too quickly on a new production you risk compromising quality. I think demand is sucking up the supply, not the other way around.

Increasing your supply chain means you need to tell the parts suppliers you source from to make more before you can build, then you need to make sure your factory can still maintain the quality standards and may have to grow your workforce. I thought I read Kia added more night shifts to the West Point factory to ramp production. Plus you have to reassess what trim and features people are buying so you can make the right mix of colors, trims, and packages without alienating certain price points. That takes time. Throwing in a global pandemic can’t make it easier.

My production number is just north of 8,000 and I have a few minor recalls to deal with that the 2021s will never see. This has to factor in a little before you crank out 150,000 vehicles that you need to recall. Even though competition redesigned like the Highlander and Explorer, a redesign is still easier than a brand new vehicle. I think Kia USA knew they had a potential hit but the Borrego US sales of the past could have contributed to starting out more conservatively.

You must also factor in supply chain and production limitations from Covid. As I move through this world I am seeing and encountering strange shortages that did not exist pre-pandemic. Up here in Boeing land a lot of subcontractors and supply chain companies have shut down or gone out of business. Most factories are experiencing staffing shortfalls due to regulations. Tough to ramp up when being forced to shut down.

 

[TellTastic]

That wasn’t NCTelly, it was @NDBlackEX. The post about the auto-dimming mirrors was actually more on topic with the subject of this thread...if I am not mistaken.

edited. Good catch. @NCTelly, you put our some analytical responses also.
And yes, the dimming mirrors was on topic, but that’s what I was getting at- I was having more fun reading the other comments rather than envisioning the future of the Telly

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[hfTELLY]

Regarding other features..............what about auto-dimming side view mirrors? Have them on all three of our family vehicles and I think it's a great thing.

Would be nice. I never thought of that.

 

[hfTELLY]

It's going to take something else coming out that's newer and better, or at least as good. I'm looking at you, Honda. (They're the next one up for a redesign) If the new Pilot comes out with a revised architecture that rivals the Kia, people could flock to that. I think people getting sick of waiting will start to thin the herd a bit. I know a lot of people on here are resigned to waiting but I wonder how many people hear 3,4,6,8,12 month wait and walk out the door never to be seen again. I say that because they move on, buy something else and are out of the market for 3-5 years. This buzz will definitely be gone by that point.

If people go in looking for a Telluride, don't find one but there are 30 new Sorentos on the lot, maybe they gravitate toward those as well.

If they don't have a plan in the works to increase production capacity, we will likely see this trend continue for a while. How covid effects the supply chain will have an impact on production as well.

My fear for Kia is that they make the decision to ramp up production, it takes a few years to execute the plan, the competition introduces new stuff in that timeframe and all of a sudden, they're old news and now they're cranking out more units than they can sell. They seem to be quite reserved when it comes to making decisions so I'm guessing that scenario is on their radar. They don't seem to be big risk takers.

Just had a family member looking for months for a new vehicle. They just about settled on the Telly but got fed up with not being about to find one. Guess what? Moved on and purchased an Audi. It’s still unacceptable how they allowed production to get behind in the first place. They knew this car would be a hit when the commercial dropped during Super Bowl. I know we’re blaming Covid, but I’ve had my Telly since March ‘19. Which probably means they made it months prior. They’ve had time to get it together. They just dropped the ball, that’s it.

 

[javer]

When do you see things leveling out? With the amount of ppl and waitlists that dealers are claiming--it might take 3 or 4 years. But they def need to get it together. Or ppl will just go to the next new thing that comes out within that time.

I question Kia Operations. Since there is a huge backlog of Tellurides why would they come out with another model (Nightfall)? Fill current backorder's then come out with additional models. This is Operations 101.

 

[2020Telly]

I question Kia Operations. Since there is a huge backlog of Tellurides why would they come out with another model (Nightfall)? Fill current backorder's then come out with additional models. This is Operations 101.

Negative. You don’t flood the market with the popular trims simply because you have a deposit. You stick to the production plan and make sure you are catering to the most number of buyers not the most popular selling trim with deposits. Popularity is temporary until supply meets demand. But demand drives supply, so innovating with new options and packages helps keep popularity high. Relative to other vehicles they are selling all 4 trims and they aren’t sitting on the lot. For example, the LX/S trims may be competing for converted minivan shoppers while the EX/SX targeting mid to large more luxury buyers at a higher price point. The EX and SX are just more likely to have deposits and growingly impatient buyers. You also can’t fill orders strictly on deposits because they you are creating a bigger bias with the bigger dealerships and you aren’t providing inventory to the smaller ones. This also means you aren’t spreading your inventory evenly across the US and Canada. You might be sending more to one area over another if you just catered to filling deposits. I have half a dozen Kia dealerships within a 30 minute drive. If Kia just filled deposits there would be a flood of Tellurides in my area of the country but a huge gap to fill in other areas of the country. The most motivated buyers will talk with an out of state dealer and make it happen.

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[superk1977]

It's a safe bet that Honda is coming out with a redesigned Pilot for 2022 since they are offering a special edition trim for 21 which they've done the final year of vehicle generations for over a decade.

Let's talk about the current gen Pilot here for a second if we're talking about Honda not wanting to go back to square one. They did just that with this gen. It's built completely different from the boxy version that came prior to 2016. I'm not talking styling here, I'm talking architecture. The styling is obvious. Honda has not been afraid to tear something down and rework it if it's not right or competitive. See the 2012-2013 civic. They've also been slowly adding to their SUV lineup with the HRV and Passport (the Element is rumored to come back as well) just as Kia has with the Telluride and Seltos. They're going with the suv trend like everyone else and I'm not surprised to see them redesign their 3 row so quickly considering the segment has been booming the last 3-5 years.

The "opportunity" is certainly there to make a better Pilot and have it be a hit. If they come out totally fresh for 2022, they'll likely have the freshest 3 row for a couple years. The Traverse/Acadia, Ascent and Atlas are mid cycle right now, Explorer, Telluride, Highlander are 1st or 2nd year. The Pathfinder, CX9 and Durango are really the only other aging platforms and their piece of the pie is small and they're slow to refresh. The Jeep Grand Wagoneer could be entering the segment as well but I'd expect more of an off road vibe than the rest of the class.

I'd expect that Honda's going to do their thing styling wise. They probably won't shake things up too much. They don't need to, they've got a good reputation to stand on, Kia is still trying to build a good reputation. The architecture is the big thing and where Kia really nailed the Telluride. Styling is subjective and the tech and value (depending on trim) really are just on par with the competition despite what many will say. *Debate me on that if you'd like, Telluride has a few things that are class exclusive but feature some options only on the top trim that are available on competitors lower trims and competitors offer things you can't get on the Telluride.* The Telluride just offers more space and comfort for its size than anything else out there. It's all in how it's built. I will say that once there are incentives available for Telluride, the value will really kick up a notch, especially on the higher trims.

Now, will Honda kick their next gen Pilot up a notch and will it be ready next year? We will have to see. There certainly is opportunity there and if they do a good enough job, they'll be flying off the lots and they just may steal some business from Kia. It should be an interesting year or two in this segment.

*They definitely need to improve the styling on the Pilot before I would consider one and I'm a Honda guy. I think it looks more like a minivan than the Odyssey.

Great write up on the Pilot. We were considering it but my brother-in-law just got one. My wife agrees that the Pilot is just blah. I agree it looks kinda like our Odyssey. There is nothing "Wow" in it. The Telly runs circles around it for tech, freshness, styling, etc I think we would have been interested in it if they do a shakeup and refresh the 2022 but I won't wait until then.

 

[2020Telly]

Just had a family member looking for months for a new vehicle. They just about settled on the Telly but got fed up with not being about to find one. Guess what? Moved on and purchased an Audi. It’s still unacceptable how they allowed production to get behind in the first place. They knew this car would be a hit when the commercial dropped during Super Bowl. I know we’re blaming Covid, but I’ve had my Telly since March ‘19. Which probably means they made it months prior. They’ve had time to get it together. They just dropped the ball, that’s it.

Making cars isn’t making pizza. You don’t just buy the ingredients and 15 minutes later your pizza is done. Then you buy more of the toppings that are selling this week next week. There are so many macro and micro economics to consider in order to scale and parts supplier dependencies to consider while attempting to maintain quality. If they hired more and added a night shift to the West Point factory to scale that might have been the best they could do short of building a second factory somewhere which takes years. While I’m sure West Point, GA is a beautiful town, you can’t produce more without an appropriately sized workforce. Last I checked the unemployment rate is pretty high so if you are creating jobs that’s more than most are doing. There are only so many workers that the town can handle. And I’m sure between the Hyundai plant in Montgomery and the Kia plant in West Point you have a supplier network of small but necessary parts that aren’t going to ship from South Korea or China without significant cost to backfill, so you lose the economies of scale and have to start increasing the invoice and MSRP which will turn off some buyers.

What you are describing is a typical bell curve buying pattern. Demand is high and you grow to try to keep supply up while still keeping the interest high knowing that you may lose some buyers being the risk. When you reach critical mass you hope that you scaled conservatively enough to reach the most buyers without saturating the market with an inferior product. The automakers that end up with more inventory than they have demand have to slash prices to make room on their lots are the ones that planned poorly.

Bottomline, the Telluride is still getting people in the door of the dealerships to see the Stingers and K5s on the lot. And some might check out the Sedona or Sorento. Maybe they will even tell their teenager or older parent about the Soul as a cool looking functional and easy to enter vehicle.

I know you want to blame Kia for not having a crystal ball, but if they over produced the wrong thing I wonder if more people would be criticizing them for the opposite. At one of my first oil changes I struck up a conversation with an older gentleman who owned a Sorento and I got some enlightenment as to the question I had as to why they still even made the Sorento. He told me that he liked the Telluride when they test drove but his wife who had health issues felt the Sorento was easier to get in and out of and they didn’t need the third row. This got me to thinking that they couldn’t just stop making the Sorento and go all Telluride because they weren’t catering to just me.

 

[hfTELLY]

Making cars isn’t making pizza. You don’t just buy the ingredients and 15 minutes later your pizza is done. Then you buy more of the toppings that are selling this week next week. There are so many macro and micro economics to consider in order to scale and parts supplier dependencies to consider while attempting to maintain quality. If they hired more and added a night shift to the West Point factory to scale that might have been the best they could do short of building a second factory somewhere which takes years. While I’m sure West Point, GA is a beautiful town, you can’t produce more without an appropriately sized workforce. Last I checked the unemployment rate is pretty high so if you are creating jobs that’s more than most are doing. There are only so many workers that the town can handle. And I’m sure between the Hyundai plant in Montgomery and the Kia plant in West Point you have a supplier network of small but necessary parts that aren’t going to ship from South Korea or China without significant cost to backfill, so you lose the economies of scale and have to start increasing the invoice and MSRP which will turn off some buyers.

What you are describing is a typical bell curve buying pattern. Demand is high and you grow to try to keep supply up while still keeping the interest high knowing that you may lose some buyers being the risk. When you reach critical mass you hope that you scaled conservatively enough to reach the most buyers without saturating the market with an inferior product. The automakers that end up with excess inventory than they have demand have to slash prices to make room on their lots are the ones that planned poorly.

Bottomline, the Telluride is still getting people in the door of the dealerships to see the Stingers and K5s on the lot. And some might check out the Sedona or Sorento. Maybe they will even tell their teenager or older parent about the Soul as a cool looking functional and easy to enter vehicle.

I know you want to blame Kia for not having a crystal ball, but if they over produced the wrong thing I wonder if more people would be criticizing them for the opposite. At one of my first oil changes I struck up a conversation with an older gentleman who owned a Sorento and I got some enlightenment as to the question I had as to why they still even made the Sorento. He told me that he liked the Telluride when they test drove but his wife who had health issues felt the Sorento was easier to get in and out of and they didn’t need the third row. This got me to thinking that they couldn’t just stop making the Sorento and go all Telluride because they weren’t catering to just me.

I get all of that. I’m still saying they dropped the ball. And they did. I’m not going to make excuses for them. They’ve been in the game for YEARS. They should know how this works by now.

 

[2020Telly]

I get all of that. I’m still saying they dropped the ball. And they did. I’m not going to make excuses for them. They’ve been in the game for YEARS. They should know how this works by now.

I’m not making excuses just making sense of what the reality is. Toyota pioneered something called Just In Time manufacturing. That’s what we are seeing with the Telluride. They can’t keep costs down for value by making the mistakes of the Borrego where they built a car no one in the US wanted to buy sitting on their lots. Like I said a motivated buyer will look at failcat to figure out the most common config being manufactured then find a dealer on this forum willing to sell over the phone and make it happen. The patient ones will wait. And the really impatient ones didn’t really want a Telluride and they will walk. Buyers are empowered now more than they ever have been with the internet. If you give up on a deposit because you were waiting for Kia to fill the dealer order, then that is your choice to put in less effort.

If you look at The Rogers Adoption Curve, the five types of buyers are: Innovators (2.5%), Early Adopters (13.5%), Early Majority (34%), Late Majority (34%), Laggards (16%).

If you count the 2020 and 2021 model years as coming close to the demands of Innovators and Early Adopters at 100,000 Tellurides a year for 16% of buyers, then to get to that 34% number you could in theory plan to ramp up production in the 3rd or 4th years to ~212,500 Tellurides Per year to meet demand of the majority before you have to start thinking of a remodel or newer innovations that refresh the buyers. What appears to be happening is that the popularity is speeding up the time table for the Early Majority and people who would have waited see all the great press and now want to make a purchase sooner. But when they get to the 200,000+ in sales range in the US they are competing with the Highlander, Jeep Cherokee and Ford Explorer numbers. Pumping out 200,000 Tellurides in year 1 or 2, even if you can sell them, just means massive recalls if something goes wrong (a la Palisade’s funky smell, or AWD related noise or failures) and a risk that you lower the overall quality standards while they sit on a lot waiting for the Early and Late Majority buyers to decide if they want to pull the trigger or not.