Wouldn't count on prices of used Carnivals to drop like that of the Sedonas.
Like the Telluride, the Carnival has an ATP of over $40k (several thousand over the Odyssey) and it has dethroned the Telluride as the Kia with the tightest inventory; granted, Kia is only selling around 3.5-4k Carnivals a month as opposed to 8-9k Tellurides a month, but Kia is also selling 6-7k Carnivals a month in Korea.
Think the upcoming Carnival hybrid will especially be in demand.
The K8 is also doing 6k/month in Korea - those 3 models are printing $$ for Kia.
So we're basically seeing the same trend that we saw the first couple years of each new Sedona generation. This time, at least as far as I know, they're producing more higher trims. The bread and butter for Kia with the Sedonas was the lower trims. Undercutting the competition's low trims and great lease deals were what kept Sedonas moving off lots. There's low inventory in the market, period. People are snatching up what they can. I've seen about 8 come through my local dealer thus far. All but one of the ones I've seen have been SX or SXP. I'd expect the ATP to drop once the newness wears off.
I'd bet that since they redo the van every six years or so, you see quite a few buyers upgrade to the current gen when they come out. Likely making up a considerable share of the first two years' sales. Mix in some good lease deals and you've got a good couple of sales years. Then, year 3-4, excitement generally wanes, the competition is refreshed, the leases get turned in and suddenly the used market is flooded. Now if you're in the market, you're left with the decision to buy new or slightly used for about half the price. That's my observation as to how Kia's van market has gone historically. Will the name change fix that? I don't know, maybe ask Mazda how their MPV rebranding of a van worked out.
Having said all that, I have no beef with the Kia vans. I just wouldn't buy one brand new. It's like an RV, unless you want something very specific, buy a two year old one and save about 40%. Again, in the current market, rv values are high but that will likely return to pre pandemic levels eventually.
Now, talking about tight inventory, we'll see how that holds up. Here's the difference with Carnival and Telluride: We'll learn relatively quick what the Carnival's sales ceiling is. Historically, they've been able to produce at least as many as they could sell. Peaking out at around 44k units in a year for the previous gen, I doubt there were people left wanting and waiting for Sedonas like the Telluride, they were able to produce one for everyone who wanted one and then some. I've always wondered what the Telluride's ceiling is. We may never know, I have heard no plans for expansion of their production capacity in the near future. For example, about 125-150k Pilots are moved per year, 225-250k Highlanders are sold. Tellys are topped out at around 110k or so production wise. I wonder at what point they'd have significant dealer stock? 125k? 150k? 200k?
Unless the Telluride is cutting into Carnival production capacity, my guess is that they sell 35-40k vans the first year and 40-50k the 2nd with dealer stock widely available if things kinda go back to normal with declines year over after that. At least that's the trend with the previous two gens.
Needless to say, it's been interesting to watch.
I just worry that it will be too slow and sluggish. I don’t want to get hit from behind because I’m used to driving vehicles with some oomph under the hood. The more I read the more I am thinking though perhaps for this short season of our lives, a van really would be best.
